Hormuz Crisis Cuts Both Ways for Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Q2

Maersk raised its 2026 outlook while Hapag-Lloyd absorbed $600M in Hormuz-related costs — here’s how the strait crisis is reshaping shipping economics.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is proving simultaneously costly and profitable for container shipping, with Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd both reporting sharply higher operating costs alongside stronger freight rates and demand in their latest quarterly results.

A Tale of Two Outcomes on the Same Network

Maersk raised its full-year earnings guidance for the second time this year after a strong second quarter, reporting revenue of $15.8 billion, up 20% year-over-year, with EBITDA reaching $3 billion and EBIT nearly doubling to $1.6 billion. Hapag-Lloyd, meanwhile, reported an earnings recovery from a difficult start to the year — after posting a €134 million EBIT loss in Q1 amid what CEO Rolf Habben Jansen called an “unsatisfactory” quarter — while absorbing roughly $600 million in additional costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Hapag-Lloyd has since raised its own full-year outlook, now guiding EBITDA of $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion.

Why the Costs Are Also Fueling the Recovery

Rerouting ships around the disrupted strait is expensive, but the resulting congestion and capacity constraints are simultaneously supporting freight rates. Both carriers’ executives told CNBC that shipping volumes have remained “remarkably strong” despite geopolitical turmoil and tariffs, while warning that congestion at ports and limited trucking, road, and rail capacity are creating bottlenecks that could mean further delivery delays and higher freight rates ahead. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc noted the market is still catching up on “15 years of underinvestment,” warning of continued volatility.

What This Means for Shippers and Procurement Teams

Rate volatility is now a structural feature, not a temporary spike. With both major carriers explicitly warning of continued bottlenecks and volatility rather than a return to stable pricing, procurement teams should build rate flexibility into contracts rather than assuming current elevated rates will normalize on a predictable timeline.

Port and inland capacity — not just ocean routing — is now the binding constraint. Both CEOs specifically flagged port congestion and limited trucking/rail capacity as the next bottleneck, meaning shippers should evaluate inland logistics readiness at destination ports as closely as ocean carrier selection.

Carrier financial resilience varies even within the same alliance network. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd operate the same Gemini Cooperation network yet posted meaningfully different cost outcomes — worth factoring individual carrier financial health, not just alliance membership, into long-term contract risk assessment.

FAQ

Why is the Strait of Hormuz disrupted?

The strait has faced closures and tanker attacks amid an escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and US forces throughout 2026, prompting major carriers including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd to suspend transits at various points and reroute vessels.

How has the disruption affected freight rates?

Rerouting and capacity constraints from the disruption have generally supported higher freight rates and carrier earnings, even as the same disruption adds substantial rerouting and war-risk surcharge costs for carriers and shippers alike.

What is the Gemini Cooperation?

Gemini Cooperation is the shipping alliance network between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which both carriers say has helped maintain schedule reliability despite the operational disruptions from the Hormuz and broader Middle East crisis.

Sources

• gCaptain, Hormuz Disruption Cuts Both Ways for Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd
• CNBC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd Warn of Port and Trucking Bottlenecks
• gCaptain, Hapag-Lloyd Swings to Loss as Strait of Hormuz Chaos and Weather Delays Hit Shipping

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Article 5: Air Cargo

Title (55 chars): Air Cargo Peak Season Fizzles as Spot Rates Fall 6%

Meta description (154 chars): Global air cargo spot rates fell 6% in July with almost no peak season charter interest — here’s what Xeneta’s data means for H2 2026 procurement.

Focus Keyword: air cargo peak season rates 2026

Categories: Air Cargo

Global air cargo spot rates fell 6% month-over-month in July to $3.12 per kilogram, and shippers are showing almost no appetite for peak season charters — a clear signal, according to Xeneta’s latest market analysis, that the second half of 2026 is shaping up weaker than the strong start to the year suggested.

The Rate Trajectory Is Unmistakable

Year-over-year growth has now decelerated for two consecutive months — from a 41% peak in May, to 38% in June, to 28% in July. Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw put it bluntly: “In all the conversations we’ve had with our shipper community, in only one was there talk of peak season charters.” Asia-Europe corridors saw the steepest declines, with Northeast Asia-Europe rates down 13% month-over-month and China-Western Europe down 22% to $4.15 per kg — a far steeper drop than the low single-digit declines seen in the same period the past two years.

What’s Driving the Softness

The timing coincides closely with the EU’s removal of its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on July 1, replaced with a flat €3 duty per item — and market reports already point to freighter capacity being withdrawn from China-Europe e-commerce services as a direct result. Middle East premiums remain elevated, with rates into the region still 47-84% above late-February levels, but global demand growth halved to 4% year-over-year in July as capacity increased 1%. AI-related shipments continue to support Transpacific rates even as the broader market softens.

What This Means for Procurement Teams

Shippers now have genuine negotiating leverage into H2. With van de Wouw explicitly noting rates are “on a downward trajectory year-on-year” and airlines fighting to avoid cutting rates as fast as they rose, procurement teams should actively push for rate concessions now rather than waiting, since carriers have clear incentive to resist rapid declines.

E-commerce customs changes are reshaping capacity allocation in real time. With freighter capacity already being pulled from China-Europe e-commerce lanes following the EU’s duty change, shippers relying on that corridor for e-commerce fulfillment should reassess capacity availability and pricing assumptions immediately, not at contract renewal.

Don’t assume uniform softness across all corridors. While Asia-Europe is falling sharply, Middle East premiums remain elevated and Transpacific AI-related demand is holding firm — corridor-specific analysis matters more than headline global rate trends for actual procurement decisions.

FAQ

Why are air cargo rates falling despite still being high year-over-year?

Rate premiums that built up since the Middle East conflict escalated in February are gradually unwinding, and weak peak season demand signals from shippers suggest the market is normalizing faster than carriers expected.

How did the EU’s customs change affect air cargo demand?

The EU removed its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on July 1, 2026, replacing it with a flat €3 duty per item — a change that coincided with steep rate declines on China-Europe routes and reports of freighter capacity being withdrawn from e-commerce services on that corridor.

Should shippers expect rates to keep falling through the rest of 2026?

Xeneta expects rate declines to continue but gradually rather than sharply, as lingering Middle East conflict uncertainty and jet fuel price fluctuations are likely to slow — not reverse — the pace of decline.

Sources

• Supply Chain Dive, Muted Air Cargo Peak Season Activity Signals Weaker H2
• Xeneta, Little Appetite for Peak Season Charters Signals a Weaker Air Cargo Market Over Rest of 2026
• Air Cargo Week, Little Appetite for Peak Season Charters